MARKET SIGNALS
Financial Services
Quarterly analysis of Affirm’s business, its operating drivers, economics, and what public data can and cannot establish.
Latest Analysis
The most recent deep dive.
FY2026 · FQ4'26
Published Sep 2026
A full-year review of growth, margin, funding economics, credit, and what FY2027 will test.
Read FY2026 Analysis
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COVERAGE
Quarter by quarter
A running record of the questions, conclusions, and what changes from one period to the next.
FQ3'26
Aug 2026
Core question: What is actually driving the margin improvement — and what would $100B GMV require?
Key conclusion: Funding costs explained most of the recent margin improvement, while the longer-term growth question increasingly looks like one of transaction frequency.
FY2026 · FQ4'26
Sep 2026
Core question: How much of Affirm’s current margin can hold if the funding backdrop becomes less favourable?
Key conclusion: On a fiscal-year basis, RLTC margin improved 41.5bp over two years, with 39bp of that improvement coming from lower funding cost. FY2027 becomes the test of how much of that margin can be sustained through operating performance.
WHAT I TRACK
The operating questions I come back to each quarter.
Five dimensions that make changes in the business easier to compare over time.
Growth
Consumers, transaction frequency, ticket size, and GMV.
Funding Economics
Cost of funds, funding mix, and how financing conditions flow through margins.
Credit Performance
Delinquencies, losses, reserves, and what they imply about underwriting quality.
Unit Economics
Take rate, revenue generation, and economics per transaction.
Operating Leverage
Cost efficiency, margin progression, and the path from growth to profitability.
METHOD
Public data, explicit assumptions.
The analysis uses public filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, and company-provided historical data.
Where public data can support a conclusion, I show it. Where it cannot, I leave the boundary visible.
Sources include company filings, investor materials, earnings releases, and historical financial data.
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