Grace Ge
Building systems for better decisions.
MARKET SIGNALS
Financial Services
Quarterly analysis of Affirm’s business, its operating drivers, economics, and what public data can and cannot establish.
Latest Analysis
The most recent deep dive.
2026 Q3
Published Aug 2026
Six questions about growth, funding economics, underwriting, and what the path to $100B GMV would actually require.
Read 2026 Q3 Analysis
COVERAGE
Quarter by quarter
A running record of the questions, conclusions, and what changes from one period to the next.
2026 Q3
Aug 2026
Core question: What is actually driving the margin improvement — and what would $100B GMV require?
Key conclusion: Funding costs explained most of the recent margin improvement, while the longer-term growth question increasingly looks like one of transaction frequency.
Read Analysis
2026 Q4
Coming Soon
WHAT I TRACK
The operating questions I come back to each quarter.
Five dimensions that make changes in the business easier to compare over time.
Growth
Consumers, transaction frequency, ticket size, and GMV.
Funding Economics
Cost of funds, funding mix, and how financing conditions flow through margins.
Credit Performance
Delinquencies, losses, reserves, and what they imply about underwriting quality.
Unit Economics
Take rate, revenue generation, and economics per transaction.
Operating Leverage
Cost efficiency, margin progression, and the path from growth to profitability.
METHOD
Public data, explicit assumptions.
The analysis uses public filings, earnings materials, investor presentations, and company-provided historical data.
Where public data can support a conclusion, I show it. Where it cannot, I leave the boundary visible.
Sources include company filings, investor materials, earnings releases, and historical financial data.